Projects synergycore Docs portfolio-simulator-design.md

Portfolio Simulator — Design Specification

Last modified March 28, 2026

Portfolio Simulator — Design Specification

Date: 2026-03-21 Status: Implemented

Problem

MS8h strategy backtested per-coin in isolation shows +130% to +427% over 14 months. But the portfolio-level question — which coins, when to switch, what size, which trail stop — was never comprehensively tested.

Solution

Single simulation engine testing every combination across 8 dimensions:

# Dimension Values Count
1 Selection method regime_avg, blend, top_pnl, top_wr, random, fixed 6
2 Portfolio size 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 20 7
3 Swap strategy never, swap_1, swap_2, swap_all, full_rotation 5
4 Swap friction none, realistic 2
5 Direction both, long_only 2
6 Capital allocation equal, score_proportional 2
7 Trail stop 0.003, 0.005, 0.010 3
8 Rebalance trigger regime_change, weekly, monthly 3

Total: ~15,120 deterministic configs + 12,600 random repetitions.

Key Files

  • experiments/ms8h_live/portfolio_sim.py (1,678 lines) — engine + config generation
  • experiments/ms8h_live/portfolio_sim_report.py — 4-layer markdown + 7 Chart.js charts