Market Narrator Prediction Results
Structured data -> Claude prediction, testing if the signal stack contains sufficient directional information.
Results: 100% direction accuracy (15/15)
| Date |
Regime |
Direction |
Magnitude |
| Oct 14, 2025 |
Quiet/sideways |
5/5 |
5/5 |
| Oct 10, 2025 |
Crash (-7.3%) |
5/5 |
5/5 |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
V-reversal (+5.8%) |
5/5 |
4/5 |
Highest-Conviction Patterns
- Absorption + extreme taker skew -> next-window reversal
- Multi-signal overextension -> pullback
- Conviction breach after absorption -> continuation
- CVD bearish divergence -> dead cat bounce failure
- Flat prediction -> "stay out" filter
Signal Hierarchy (for 30-min prediction)
- Volume conviction (relative volume + z-score)
- Key level interaction (breach vs rejection)
- Taker buy ratio direction
- Volume loading (front-loaded = exhaustion)
- CVD cumulative direction + divergence flags
Conclusion
The signal layers contain sufficient information for directional prediction. The problem is not information availability but codification into deterministic rules.